COP15 An Essential Overview

What is on the table for the negotiations in Copenhagen?

Below are some excerpts of a briefing book on the Copenhagen negotiations compiled by members of the U.S. Climate Action Network (attached). CAN is an activist network composed of dedicated agitators in the field, and while CAN’s advocacy is framed by a strong positions in the debate, the pages attached provide a fairly straightforward summary and orientation to the proceedings.

The 3-page “Minister’s Discussion Paper” in the attachment is a helpful outline of the proceedings even for those who are “advanced” observers in the field. It is a product of the Danish Ministry for the Environment led by Connie Hedegaard (see page 2 of attachment), and though the negotiations have had many developments in detail since the paper was released, many of the fundamental issues outlined in the paper are largely the same areas of activity.

What are thousands of delegates actually negotiating?

There are two major parallel negotiations. The first is about Further Commitments for Annex I Parties (i.e. a second commitment period) under the Kyoto Protocol. The negotiations have primarily focused on the adequacy of those targets compared to what a few published papers assessed by the IPCC indicated would be necessary to achieve a stabilization target consistent with 2 degrees Celsius (25-40% below 1990 by 2020 for Annex I).

Although all the Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol have already announced a target, some of them would prefer to not to have a second commitment period. Instead, they would like a single legal agreement that would include the U.S. and extend mitigation obligations to some developing countries that are major emitters – most notably, China. The possibility of discontinuing the Kyoto Protocol has alarmed some developing countries since there is not yet another international agreement in place, and they have argued that it should persist at least for now.

The second major negotiation is the implementation of the Bali Action Plan by an “Ad Hoc Working Group for Long-term Cooperative Action.” Through a series of meetings throughout the year, negotiators had split themselves up into sub-groups, with each group focused on a specific aspect of the Bali Action Plan. (BAP is included in the last few pages of the attachment.) Each group had produced several iterative editions of a “non-paper” on their topic as a precursor to a negotiating text, and each of those non-papers was then forwarded to Copenhagen.

Because all the texts together exceed 150 pages, the basic quest is to boil each of the papers down into a formal decision that could be agreed upon by the 192 countries represented in the Council of the Parties to the Convention. Connecting them all is one overarching text that draws elements from those underlying decision papers, and that is the document people usually refer to when they are talking about getting a “deal” in Copenhagen. The legal form of that overarching text is one of the issues also up for discussion (i.e. whether it should be a COP decision, treaty, etc.)

What is in the “draft text” reported in the media?

There are multiple draft texts from multiple sources, including proposals from Brazil, India & China; the Alliance Of Small Island States; and a group facilitated by the Danish Ministry of the Environment. There is also a “core” text for the LCA negotiations (as of Dec 12th) drafted by the chair of those negotiations, which can be found here: http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/draftcoretext.pdf

Texts of all the non-papers and the draft amendment to the Kyoto Protocol can also be found on the UNFCCC website.

How do the negotiations get resolved?

National delegates arrive on-site with negotiating positions and instructions from their country governments. Then thousands of observers accredited through a wide range of NGOs (including trade associations, environmental organizations, and research centers) try to influence those positions by lobbying thousands of national delegates on scores of issues. Think tanks offer ideas for language that could move the negotiations ahead, and interest groups apply pressure to try to drive consensus toward their preferred outcome.

Observers also lobby each other as well to form loose coalitions and advance various interests. In addition to the corridors, they operate through a continuous stream of concurrent side events to raise issues, make arguments, perform outreach, and build consensus: http://regserver.unfccc.int/seors/reports/events_list.html?session_id=COP15

In an effort to consolidate positions in the negotiations, the national delegates coordinate positions with one another by meeting regularly with members of their negotiating blocs, such as the G77+China or the Umbrella Group. The negotiators also organize drafting groups and bilateral meetings to try to resolve issues prior to formally facilitated negotiating sessions.

The professional negotiators will resolve as much as they can by a deadline early this week, and then all of their texts will be elevated to their superiors – most of whom are ministers of environment or senior foreign affairs officials. In previous UNFCCC COPs, the ministers would work through the end of the week to try to resolve issues, and then the group would adopt decisions that reflected as much as they could support through the consensus process.

This year, the ministers have been engaging the negotiations throughout the year, with a feverish pace of political negotiations through the fall season. Heads of State have also engaged the issues in multiple meetings this year, including the G8 and G20 meetings. Now more than 100 heads of state have elected to join the proceedings, with most arriving on Thursday. As a result, issues still unresolved by ministers could be elevated to heads of state, which is extraordinary for UNFCCC negotiations.

How can I keep up with the negotiations?

Thousands of journalists from every type of media outlet are on-site covering the proceedings, and the blogging and online broadcast productions are extensive. However, access to most negotiating rooms is restricted to negotiators, which is one reason rumors in the corridors can quickly become news stories. Other sources typically originate from a side events and press conferences organized by national delegations, NGO’s, and the UNFCCC Secretariat – all with different interests and angles.

To open access to the formal proceedings far and wide, the UNFCCC has made a major effort to webcast some of the major sessions live. The sessions that are webcast are open to observers, and they typically involve formalities that mask some of the more direct negotiations happening in informal sessions that are closed to observers. Nevertheless, it is well worth tuning in to history this week: http://cop15.meta-fusion.com/

Finally, IISD produces a summary of the many parallel channels of negotiation each day in a publication called Earth Negotiations Bulletin: http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop15/